I'm just gonna randomly post this, it's a post I made in easylove's excellent
Jump's top 100 selling series video.
Seems like a long read, but it actually isn't, the TL: DR was meant for posters of another forum, ANN.
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Jump follows a model that has provided them with plenty of popular titles, and in fact once a title is popular now a days it's easier for it to continue for many more years.
WSJ Total series
1968- 1973 106 series
1974-1979 78 series
1980-1984 83 series
1985-1989 69 series
1990-1994 65 series
1995-1999 63 series
2000-2004 57 series
2005-2009 58 series
2010-2014 55 series
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634 series in total
Series that ran for more than 1 year, and percent ratio at the right, first % means ratio of manga that survive 1 year, 2 years, etc, the other % means percentage of mangas that lasted 1 year surviving the next year and so on:
1968- 1973 24 series 22%
1974-1979 15 series 19%
1980-1984 17 series 22%
1985-1989 19 series 27%
1990-1994 24 series 36%
1995-1999 22 series 34%
2000-2004 16 series 28%
2005-2009 22 series 38%
2010-2014 13 series 23%
Series that ran for more than 2 years:
1968- 1973 17 series 16% 70%
1974-1979 11 series 14% 73%
1980-1984 14 series 16% 82%
1985-1989 15 series 21% 78%
1990-1994 15 series 23% 62%
1995-1999 17 series 26% 77%
2000-2004 13 series 22% 81%
2005-2009 12 series 20% 54%
2010-2014 9 series 16% 69%
Series that ran for more than 3 years:
1968- 1973 11 series 10% 64%
1974-1979 9 series 11% 81%
1980-1984 10 series 12% 71%
1985-1989 10 series 14% 66%
1990-1994 13 series 20% 86%
1995-1999 17 series 26% 100% (2 series had 3 issues less than 3 years)
2000-2004 11 series 19% 84%
2005-2009 11 series 19% 91%
2010-2014 9 series 16% 100%
Things to note:
The rate of manga that will be successful (IMO running for at least 3 years would be considered a very succesful run) is around 20%, and it doesn't realy change much between manga that ran for 2 and 3 years.
As you can see from the data once a series survives at least 2 years it has very high chances of surviving to 3 years, in average around 90% of 2 year manga will make it to 3 years.
And in average only 1 in 7 manga will get to run for 3 years.
Back in the 60s-70s JUMP actually cancelled manga after a period as short as only 3 weeks! That wasn't even enough to publish a tankobon! I guess nowadays they make a the deal with the publisher authors to at least continue till chapter 9 AKA enough chapters to publish a 180ish pages tankobon.
TL: DR
Jump cancels manga faster than any other magazine based on the manga's popularity, but it also has A LOT of new series every year, around 11 nowadays, and as you can see in the last chart, the odds of a series surviving in JUMP for more than 3 years is 16%, JUMP serializes around 11 new series every year, so chances are that Jump will get two new popular series that last at least 3 years every year.